In order to improve the shifting quality of the automated manual transmission (AMT), the wear prediction model of the synchronizer shift slider in AMT was established and the wear change law was analyzed. Based on the heat transfer theory and considering the heat transfer boundary conditions between the shift slider and the sleeve, a finite element model for calculating the wear of the shift slider during a single shift was established. The simulation scheme was designed according to the BOX design method, and the actual fluctuating speed of the sleeve was approximately replaced. The simulation calculation was performed on the wear of the shift slider under different shifting forces, sleeve speeds and friction coefficients by the Archard wear theory, and the linear regression prediction model of wear was obtained through response surface analysis. On this basis, the influence law of various factors on the amount of wear was studied. The error between the prediction model and the test result is less than 5%. Shifting force, sleeve speed and friction coefficient were the main influencing factors of wear, and there was a positive correlation between the wear and the three factors. The sleeve speed and shifting force had more significant influence on single wear, and the interaction between them was obvious. In the range of 750 r/min to 5000 r/min, the increment of wear decreased with the increase of speed. Shifting force and speed have great influence on the wear of shift slider. Especially in the case of high speed, by controlling the size of the shifting force, the wear of the shift slider can be effectively reduced, and the service life of AMT can be improved.