The work aims to characterize the temperature-dependent surface hardness of thin films theoretically. In consid-eration of preparation temperature of thin films and effects of service temperature on mechanical properties of materials, the theoretical temperature-dependent surface hardness characterization model for thin films was developed based on the latest research achievement of theoretical characterization for temperature-dependent strength and the quantitative relationship between hardness and strength of materials. The theoretical characterization model was used to establish the quantitative relation between coating surface hardness at different temperature and the surface hardness at reference temperature, the temperature-dependent Young’s modulus, the residual thermal stress, the temperature, and the melting point. The surface hardness of thin films at different temperatures could be predicted from the surface hardness at the reference temperature by the model. To verify the model, the temperature-dependent surface hardness of thin films like BC, SiC, amorphous carbon, Ti alloy, and NiO was respectively predicted by the established theoretical characterization model and then compared with the experimental results. The theoretical prediction values were consistent with the experimental results. The model can effectively predict the surface hardness of thin films at different temperature and provide a way for theoretical prediction of temperature-dependent surface hardness of thin films.