Objective The process of wheel rolling over crack was analyzed by the finite element software ANSYS, in order to predict the propagation direction of the wheel-rail contact fatigue crack. Methods Based on the maximum circumferential stress criterion, the possible propagation direction of initial crack with different angles during the process was analyzed using probabilistic and statistical method. The crack propagation path was calculated using the average propagation angle as the direction of crack propagation during the process of wheel rolling over crack. Results The correlation coefficient fitted by the probability paper was all higher than 98. 5% , indicating that the possibility that the possible crack propagation direction was in line with the Weibull distribution was higher than 98. 5% . The possible crack propagation direction was almost in line with the Weibull distribution when the crack length was less than 700 μm. The equivalent stress intensity factor Keff of crack tip began to show four peaks when the crack length reached 800 μm. The crack propagated abruptly in the opposite direction of the train running as the crack length reached 1200 μm when the Keff of crack tip at the 3rd peak load exceeded the fracture toughness of the material. Conclusion For initial crack with different angles, the crack propagation direction was almost in line with Weibull distribution. The whole trend of the crack path was in agreement with the experimental crack path, which proved the feasibility of using the average propagation angle as the crack propagation direction.